Across South Africa’s plastics and packaging sector, discussion is growing around cheaper imports, manufacturing pressure and what a more integrated African market could mean for recyclers, converters and producers.

While some stakeholders are concerned about the impact of lower-cost virgin resin on recycling economics, others argue the challenge runs deeper. South Africa has long imported virgin PET and other polymer materials from Europe and Asia, with lower-cost Far East material already part of the competitive environment. According to Extrupet joint managing director Chandru Wadhwani, the concern is not necessarily new pressure, but another layer being added to an already difficult market. ‘We’re already competing against lower-cost resin from the Far East, and regional production growth could add another dimension to that market dynamic,’ he says.

Chandru believes growing polymer capacity in countries such as Egypt and, potentially, Nigeria could influence regional trade dynamics over time. Combined with the gradual implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), trade patterns across Africa could continue to evolve over the coming years.

Historically, some imported polymer categories attracted duties from certain regions, while preferential trade arrangements already existed in others. Industry stakeholders believe some tariff structures could evolve further under AfCFTA, although the timing and categories involved remain subject to negotiation and verification.

While PET recycling provides a useful example of how trade changes can influence circular systems, stakeholders caution that the issue extends beyond a single polymer stream into questions about manufacturing competitiveness. Nevertheless, even relatively small changes within PET markets can create downstream effects. Demand softens, recyclate pricing weakens and collection economics tighten.

‘The hits keep on coming for PET recycling in South Africa,’ says Chandru. He notes that previous oil-price shocks often benefited recyclers because rising virgin resin prices pushed converters towards alternative material streams. ‘When there were oil shocks before, people were lining up outside our factory. This time there have been phone calls, but nowhere near what we expected. That tells you demand is soft.’

For him, this may indicate something more structural than short-term volatility. Inflationary pressure, softer consumer spending and slower FMCG growth are already creating difficult trading conditions.

According to Philippa Rodseth, executive director of Manufacturing Circle, those pressures extend well beyond plastics. South Africa’s manufacturing sector operates within a difficult cycle of weak economic growth, subdued demand and underutilised production capacity. ‘Rising electricity, logistics and operating costs are also making it harder for manufacturers to achieve the economies of scale needed to sustain profitability,’ Philippa notes.

An industry body within the South African plastics industry believes the discussion should be viewed in a wider context where polymer imports themselves may not be the central issue. ‘The larger pressure point may not necessarily be virgin polymer imports, but increasing volumes of finished and semi-finished products entering South Africa at highly competitive prices,’ it explains.

Recent trade patterns suggest the issue extends beyond raw polymers alone. China is South Africa’s largest import source, accounting for roughly 22% of total imports, while industry observers point to increasing volumes of competitively priced finished and semi-finished goods entering local markets.

Those effects extend beyond polymer producers and recyclers. Manufacturing decline can ripple through industrial ecosystems, affecting packaging suppliers, printers, logistics providers and supporting industries.

Philippa says these effects can intensify across already strained sectors. ‘When domestic demand is weak and excess production capacity already exists, additional distortions can place further strain on profitability and investment decisions across manufacturing,’ she notes.

The industry body cautions against overstating the immediate impact of African polymer production. Africa still represents a relatively small share of the global polymer market, with imported polymers accounting for only a limited portion of local demand. The organisation argues the narrative should not be framed as an imminent African ‘polymer invasion’, but as part of a broader discussion around industrial development and manufacturing competitiveness.

That does not mean growth is not occurring. Packaging is one of the largest consumers of polymer materials across Africa, driven by food, beverage, personal care and retail supply chains.

Egypt has become one of the continent’s larger polymer hubs. The Indorama-linked EIPET facility in Ain Sokhna produces around 540 000 tons of PET resin annually, while the country’s plastics sector continues to record growth.

Nigeria is also seeking to expand its petrochemical footprint through development of the Dangote complex. Industry reports suggest any future surplus production capacity could seek export opportunities across regional markets.

However, according to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC), regional industrialisation should not automatically be viewed negatively.

DTIC’s director of plastics Thokozani Masilela says South Africa’s challenge is finding ways to strengthen local capability while participating in regional growth opportunities.

‘Regional integration should strengthen value chains and manufacturing capability rather than create unintended pressure on vulnerable sectors,’ he says.

Cheap imports can look attractive in the short term,’ Mark says. ‘But over time, you hollow out local manufacturing capability.’

According to Thokozani, South Africa nevertheless remains heavily exposed to imported feedstock, with plastics-related trade deficits regularly exceeding R20-billion and approaching R30-billion in recent years. He also acknowledges that imported virgin materials can unintentionally place circular systems under pressure. ‘If imported virgin plastics remain cheaper than recycled alternatives, collection, sorting and recovery systems can come under strain.’

A level playing field

According to Safripol sales and marketing executive Mark Berry, imports also raise a key question: whether local manufacturers are competing on equal terms. The discussion around imports often overlooks what he describes as ‘trade asymmetry’. ‘We’re not saying don’t compete. We’re saying compete under the same rules,’ he says.

Mark argues factors such as under-declaration, tariff-code manipulation and pricing distortions can affect market dynamics. Philippa similarly notes that imports entering under distorted conditions can place additional pressure on sectors already operating in a constrained economic environment. Import duties are linked to declared shipment values. If values are declared below actual levels, pricing advantages can emerge that may not accurately reflect market conditions.

Mark also cautions against using the term ‘dumping’ too broadly. Under World Trade Organisation rules, dumping has a specific legal definition involving products sold below home-market value. However, other forms of market distortion can still materially affect industries.

South Africa has encountered similar concerns previously. In April 2025, ITAC accepted Safripol’s application for a sunset review of anti-dumping duties on PET imports from China after finding a prima facie case that removing duties could lead to continued dumping and material injury to local industry. The investigation identified a calculated dumping margin of 44.97%.

Mark notes that SARS and DTIC remain supportive when credible evidence exists, but practical enforcement becomes more difficult in high-volume trade environments.

Meanwhile, local manufacturers continue carrying additional burdens. Electricity costs, logistics constraints, fuel prices, labour expenses and infrastructure challenges continue weighing on local industry while global polymer oversupply remains elevated.

Policy balancing act

Government believes the answer is unlikely to be found simply through restricting trade. According to Thokozani, the challenge is balancing regional integration with domestic industrial development.

DTIC currently uses phased tariff liberalisation, Rules of Origin requirements and trade remedies to support vulnerable sectors.

Manufacturing Circle also points to the importance of monitoring import volumes and pricing behaviour to identify market distortions early. Philippa says consistent Rules of Origin enforcement and timely implementation of trade remedies become more important where evidence of unfair trade practices emerges.

‘The challenge is finding the balance between deeper African trade integration and protecting domestic manufacturing and circular economy objectives,’ Thokozani says.

AfCFTA is no longer theoretical. Twenty-five African countries have already begun preferential trade arrangements, with most tariff lines expected to move towards zero-duty treatment over time. The agreement aims to unlock a market of more than 1.4 billion people and an economy valued at roughly $3.4-trillion. Few industry stakeholders oppose those ambitions.

The bigger question may be how local industries position themselves within that environment. South Africa has spent years building collection systems, EPR structures and recycling infrastructure. PET collection rates continue improving, while waste pickers are important contributors to recovery systems.

Circularity targets continue to tighten and brand owners face greater sustainability expectations, but circular systems do not exist in isolation. Virgin polymer markets are influenced by oil prices, currency movements, geopolitics, logistics disruptions and trade policy decisions.

Mark points to Australia as an example of how sustained competitiveness pressure can alter manufacturing landscapes over time. ‘Cheap imports can look attractive in the short term,’ he says. ‘But over time, you hollow out local manufacturing capability.’ His concern is not resistance to trade itself, but preserving industrial capability once erosion begins. ‘Once you lose manufacturing capability, getting it back becomes incredibly difficult.’

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